Every week the Center for Disease Control (CDC) analyzes information about the Influenza A H1N1 virus. They publish their findings of key flu indicators in a report called FluView. I asked Jody Victor® to give us some updates.
Jody Victor® : During the last week of December some key indicators decreased and others increased. Here is a list of the most recent key indicators:
- Doctor visits for flu-like illness increased nationally from the week before. This is the first increase after eight straight decreases.
- Hospitalization rates for flu-like illness were unchanged from the week before.
- Deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza increased over the previous week showing this key indicator as back above the epidemic threshold for the first time in eleven weeks. Pediatric deaths, however, decreased from nine the previous week to four. Two of these deaths were confirmed 2009 H1N1 related.
- Four states reported widespread influenza activity, a decline of three states from the week before.
- Nearly all the influenza viruses identified so far were 2009 H1N1 influenza A. These viruses remained similar to the virus chosen for the vaccine. The identified viruses remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs oseltamivir and zanamivir.
In general, since early November cases of H1N1 have continued to decline. Scientists keeping track of the information say that as pandemics go, 2009 H1N1 has turned out to be a mild one. Health officials now are pondering: Will there be a second wave of cases in the new year? Health officials warn that there are still four to five months left in the influenza season giving plenty of time for the virus to make its rounds and find new hosts.
Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Public Health, and colleagues have been studying the H1N1 virus since last spring. Lipsitch anticipates far fewer deaths from 2009 H1N1 than initially predicted. He believes the most likely number will end up between 10,000 and 15,000. Their estimates are far below the toll of the 1957 flu, which killed 69,800 people in the U.S. Health officials do caution on comparing previous pandemics to the current H1N1 outbreak however. Forty years ago health officials lacked the antiviral therapies and nationwide vaccination programs available today.
Health officials’ concern over another winter wave of influenza is all the more reason to continue aggressive anti-flu efforts. People should keep washing their hands, covering their coughs and getting vaccinated. Lipsitch says, “The more people who are vaccinated this year, the less likely the H1N1 virus, which will probably be around next year, will take hold and spread.”
All the Best!